Expelled U.N. envoy warns of civil war in Somalia because of ongoing row between national govt and regional administrations

By The Star Staff Writer

MOGADISHU — In his first public speech since the Somali government banned him from operating on its soil, the U.N. Envoy to the Horn of Africa nation Nicholas Haysom warned that the raging row between the national government and regional administrations could plunge the country into civil war despite its current positive trajectory.

“We witnessed this during the electoral process in South West State,” he said in his Thursday briefing to U.N. Security Council, referring to last month’s allegations of interference by the federal government and the violence that erupted after the arrest of one of the candidates, a former Islamist leader, Mukhtar Robow.

This, he said, has “marred the process and does not bode well for the upcoming electoral processes in other regions or for the 2020 national elections.”

The same concern was voiced by the African Union Envoy to Somalia Francisco Madeira who told the Security Council that the “volatile relations” between the national government and “some” regional leaders and between the Executive and the Legislature need to be addressed in a “predictable, satisfactory and sustainable manner.”

“The relationship between the federal government and some of the federal member states remains a key concern for the African Union,” Madeira said, adding that he and Haysom jointly tried to mediate between the two sides.

The Somali government has on Tuesday banned Haysom from operating in the country, accusing the South African diplomat of “deliberately” interfering in its sovereignty and of “openly” violating diplomatic ethics and norms.

The U.N. said on Wednesday it was investigating the matter “to get the various details corroborated, and we are going to see based on that what further steps are needed.”

Haysom didn’t mention the Somali decision during his speech in New York, even after the Somali government said it had no intention of backing down.

Asked about this again on Thursday, U.N. Deputy Spokesman Farhan Haq said the U.N. is still trying to get “further clarification” about the Somali government’s decision and didn’t want to “speculate about the future.”

But he said that Haysom was briefing the Security Council in his “capacity” as the secretary-general’s special representative and “we imagine he will continue to go about his work.”

But Mogadishu remains unmoved, and its Ambassador to the U.N., Abukar Dahir Osman, said Somalia was “a sovereign nation with all its rights and privileges” and that the “U.N. and its representatives have a duty, even (an) obligation, to respect their mandate and don’t interfere in our internal affairs and let the Somalis control their own destiny.”

“Somalia distinguishes between the institutions that we’re part of and individuals’ conduct that has a detrimental effect on our fragile nation,” he told the U.N. Security Council.

On Dec. 30^th, the U.N. envoy wrote a letter to Somalia’s internal security ministry, demanding that it provide answers for 12 questions about the circumstances that led to Robow’s arrest and his subsequent detention without trial as well as the deaths of 17 people in the western Somali city of Baidoa.

Ethiopian forces under the African Union mission in Somalia arrested Robow on Dec. 13 and handed him over to the national government, which is now holding the man in an undisclosed location in the nation’s capital, Mogadishu.

Robow defected to the government in 2017 and renounced extremist ideologies, but the government said he violated the terms of his defection and brought weapons to Baidoa city, allegations which were not independently verified.

“We reject the criticism and attempt to rebrand a renewed terrorism as an ice cream salesperson without redeeming themselves,” Osman said in his speech to the Security Council minutes after Haysom’s remarks.

Osman said the national government is committed to respecting human rights, adhering to international laws and creating security forces that are accountable, transparent and able to defend the people, sovereignty, territorial integrity, political independence and unity of Somalia

“In these endeavors, we continue to promote the respect of human rights and commit to fully investigate any forms of violations, abuses against our people,” he said, possibly in reference to Haysom’s call on the Somali government to investigate the civilian deaths in Baidoa.

Robow’s arrest was seen by many as a bid by the national government to pave the way for the victory of its favorite candidate, Abdulaziz Lafta-Gareen, who eventually won handily the post of the southwestern region’s chief administrator.

Haysom faulted Robow’s arrest, saying such an action may discourage defectors from the militant group of al Shabab, “who may be considering exchanging violence for a political path.”

Haysom, who was appointed to the position last September, said the unresolved row between the national government and regional administrations “continues to impede concrete progress in defining the federal model, building institutions of state, and in the implementation of the National Security Architecture.”

President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmajo” offered to hold talks with regional administrators “behind closed doors,” while Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire set up a 6-member ministerial team to work with the upper house “to end the stalemate,” he said.

“However,” he added, “the landscape is complicated by electoral processes that are currently underway in several Federal Member States.

“Politics is complex in any nation, but in one that is still establishing its norms, institutional parameters, and still debating the responsibilities of its respective governance structures, there is a risk that complexity shifts to conflict,” he said.

Two crucial regional elections are expected to take place in Garowe, of the northeastern region, and in the southern coastal city of Kismayo, in January and August respectively.

Haysom lauded the submission of a draft of the Electoral Law to the Cabinet after inputs from political parties, civil society and the international community, but said the government’s commitment to submit the same to parliament last December is “a key milestone missed.”

“This will have a possible impact on the timelines with the electoral process,” he said, praising the National Independent Electoral Commission, or NIEC, for registering 35 political parties and making progress in pre-voter registration.

The recent discord between the Executive and the Legislature following an impeachment motion against President Farmajo, he said, could “seriously hinder Somalia’s progress” because “completing the demanding legislative agenda requires continued cooperation” between the two arms of the Somali government.

“Somalia has maintained a positive trajectory but continuing political turbulence could throw it off course,” he said.

He said al Shabab, which is the biggest source of insecurity in the country, “still has the capacity to conduct indiscriminate attacks on Somali citizens, and to target electoral delegates, the Somali security forces and AMISOM,”  or the African Union Mission in Somalia.

On Nov. 9 last year, the militants attacked Sahafi Hotel with three explosives-laden vehicles and killed dozens of civilians.

Although the African Union peacekeeping mission in the country denied the terrorist outfit the possibility of launching conventional attacks, he said, yet it “relies on Improvised Explosive Devices and targeted assassinations.”

On the humanitarian front, Haysom said 4.2 million Somalis are in need of assistance and protection, almost two thirds of whom are children.

“Around 1.5 million are severely food insecure at crisis or emergency levels. Around 2.6 million people are internally displaced,” he said, adding that this year’s humanitarian response plan, to be announced this month, will require $1.1 billion to reach 3.4 million people, or 81 per cent of the 4.2 million people in need of assistance.

He said the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia has documented 1,384 civilian casualties in 2018, with the Shabab militants accounting for 60 per cent of the deaths.

Somalia has an opportunity to make significant progress in 2019, he said, though the management of the upcoming regional elections and the review of the Constitution would determine whether the country makes further progress or not.

“Achieving this will require all role players to pull in the same direction,” he said. “Somalia has set that direction.”

Osman, the nation’s Ambassador to the U.N., lauded the Somali government’s achievements on four key areas: Inclusivity, security and justice, economic recovery and social development.

“With the help of our partners, Somalia is on the right path to recovery from several decades of civil war and anarchy,” he said. “The Somali government is committed to bringing political stability to the country and we take the necessary measures to maintain those hard earned gains in accordance with our constitutional and international law.”