By The Star Staff Writer
MOGADISHU — Somalia is unlikely to hold its presidential election on Feb. 8, as the country had already fallen behind on its schedule to hold Senate and House elections that were expected to produce lawmakers who will then elect a president in a joint session, said the UN envoy for Somalia.
The new announcement is certain to disappoint some presidential aspirants who have been eagerly awaiting for the target date to take on incumbent President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, whose term expires next month but who would legally remain in office until a successor is elected.
Speaking by video conference in a virtual briefing in the nation’s capital, Mogadishu, on Wednesday, UN envoy James Swan said the “most important” thing in Somalia right now is to ensure that key political leaders reach a common understanding about how the electoral process is “going to unfold and how it’ll proceed until it reaches its conclusion.”
The Somali government, regional chief administrators and political parties have for months been locked in a stalemate over how and when to organize the nation’s parliamentary and presidential elections despite a Sept. 17 agreement that outlined the time and the mode of the elections.
“It seems very likely this will extend for some additional period of time,” said the UN envoy James Swan. ” (But) what’s important, we think, is to have an agreement on the way forward, so that everyone can be confident in what the process entails. And that is very much what we’re encouraging.
“Fundamentally, it will be up to the Somali leaders to make those determinations,” he said. “But we very much hope they will continue to pursue dialogue, pursue compromise and seek to find a solution. That will also be the best way to reduce the risk of violence or disruption by those who may feel disadvantaged or left out of the process.”
A prominent presidential candidate, Jabril Ibrahim Abbdulle, echoed the same sentiment, saying, “It’s a reality. The election can’t happen on time.”
He, however, warned of “uncertainty,” if the government and political parties and presidential aspirants didn’t reach an agreement before Feb. 8.
Swan — who succeeded Nicholas Haysom, who was expelled from the country — has in recent days been meeting with several regional leaders virtually or in person to persuade them to accept his mediation efforts aimed at bringing President Farmajo, five regional leaders and political leaders together in a meeting in Mogadishu to iron out their differences over the elections.
On Sept. 17, the national government and regional chiefs agreed to start the electoral process on Nov. 1, but regional chiefs and opposition groups have since accused the government of appointing a partisan electoral commission. The government denied the allegation, although the independence of some of the commission’s members was called into question.
On Thursday, Swan welcomed a call by two regional chiefs — Said Abdullahi Dani, of the northeastern region, and Ahmed Mohamed Islam, best known as Madobe, of the southern region — for a meeting between regional chiefs and the national government to resolve electoral disputes.
“These are positive, conciliatory moves by Jubaland and Puntland, and I urge that they be reciprocated by the Federal Government and other Federal Member States,” said Swan in Jowhar.
The Council of Presidential Candidates, a grouping that is made up of two former presidents, a former prime minister, former ministers and other politicians, has welcomed the call and urged President Farmajo to take on his responsible role and fix the poll disagreements.
In his virtual briefing, Swan remained sanguine about Somalis’ ability to find a solution before Feb. 8, as the lack of “a clear agreement” on what to do after that could plunge the country into “unpredictable territory” and “multiply” risks.
“It will be far preferable to have an agreement prior to the 8th of February, so that everyone is on the same page, has the same vision,” the UN envoy said.
He said the three sticking points — the dispute over the management of the elections in Gedo and in the northwestern regions and political parties’ rejection of the government-appointed members of the electoral commission — could soon be resolved.
“From our consultations with a wide array of actors, we believe that in fact solutions on these three issues remain within grasp — and indeed quite a close if it would be possible for the key actors to come together and reach (a) final decision on these topics,” said Swan.
On Jan. 12, Somalia’s international partners expressed concern about “the continuing impasse” over the implementation of the Sept. 17 agreement and urged top political stakeholders to demonstrate leadership and to quickly resolve their differences through dialogue and compromise.
The Sept. 17 “Agreement remains the sole acceptable basis for the 2021 elections. There can be no re-opening of the 17 September Agreement or the creation of an alternative or parallel process,” said 16 countries and five international organizations that loosely called themselves Somalia’s international partners, insisting that “any threat or use of violence is not acceptable.”
The US Embassy in Mogadishu has also on Jan. 24 issued three nos: “No partial elections. No parallel processes. No violence.”
Swan — who served as US Ambassador to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Djibouti — said the focus must be on helping Somalis reach an agreement on election issues.
“My point really is that what is most important is not ensuring the electoral process is fully completed by February 8th, which seems unrealistic at this time,” said Swan. “But rather to ensure that there’s a common understanding by key Somali leaders about how this process is going to unfold and how it’ll proceed until it reaches its conclusion.”
Abdulle, the presidential aspirant, disagreed, saying there must be trust among Somali political leaders before Somalis could focus on the process rather than the time, an issue Swan himself raised in his briefing.
“I think more broadly, sadly,” Swan said, “there is a current climate of mistrust among many of Somalia‘s top political leaders and the challenge to some degree is how to overcome that mistrust at this time, allow everyone to move forward together, address these specific issues that have solutions and be able to move forward collectively on an agreed plan to get to the completion of the electoral process based on rules that everyone supports.”
The envoy urged Somali leaders of “good will to redouble their efforts to resolve the outstanding issues of (the) implementation of the electoral process and resolve those issues through dialogue and reach agreement on the way forward for the good of the country.”
When asked about what the UN’s response would be if the government holds elections without a consensus, he said Somali international partners have not yet taken a united stand on how to specifically respond to “different scenarios,” but are focused more on “encouraging and supporting the parties to reach an agreement, so that all can participate in the electoral process.”
“I think,” he said, “that’s what we’re placing the greatest emphasis on at the moment: Reaching an agreement on how the process will advance, so that any uncertainty can be minimized.”
The UN envoy, who was the US Special Representative for Somalia before he was appointed to his current position on May 30, 2019, dismissed claims that President Farmajo would be a private citizen after Feb. 8, saying the head of state will be legally in office until his successor is elected and sworn in.
This school of thought appears to be a “strong legal basis for continuity in office,” the UN envoy said, citing a bill that was passed in parliament in 2018, which allows incumbent lawmakers and president to keep their positions until their successors are elected.
“Our assessment is the concern is less (of) a legal concern, but more one of avoiding an unpredictable political situation in a country where we certainly don’t need anymore of that,” Swan said.